Although there is uncertainty about whether the United States imposes sanctions on Saudi Arabia, the fact that the disappearance of Kaschiji has harmed the United States and Saudi Arabia is a definite fact.
文 | Zou Zhiqiang
Recently, the disappearance of Saudi correspondent Kasuki in the consulate of Saudi Arabia in Istanbul is constantly fermenting, causing Saudi Arabia to face a major diplomatic crisis and causing market concerns, resulting in a sharp fall in the Saudi stock market and an increase in international oil prices.
There is widespread suspicion that Kashoji was killed in the Saudi consulate. Although Saudi Arabia denied it, international public opinion has accused Saudi Arabia of being responsible for this. Many people in the United States advocate sanctions against Saudi Arabia.
Reporter's disappearance has evolved into a regional crisis
Despite the words of Turkey and Saudi Arabia, the accusations or denials on this issue have not been supported by solid evidence, but the outside world, especially the United States and other Western countries, have increasingly recognized Saudi Arabia as a major suspect. It is not conducive to the rapid development of Saudi Arabia.
The US President Trump, who was cautious in his attitude, also said on the 13th that the United States is very concerned about this matter. If it proves that it is Saudi Arabia, the United States will impose severe punishment; the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany issued a joint statement on the 14th. A thorough investigation of this incident is carried out, and international investigations often mean follow-up sanctions. The Saudi government responded that it is not afraid of any external threats and can counterattack in many ways and with greater action. As a result, this crisis has shown an escalating trend, from the initial diplomatic dispute between sand and sand, to the crisis of the relationship between Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Turkey used the case to enhance its influence and break through diplomatic difficulties. After Kshagi's disappearance, Turkey proactively announced the matter and the relevant evidence it had, pointing the suspicion and investigation to Saudi Arabia. Turkish President Erdogan and government officials have repeatedly expressed their position on this and asked Saudi Arabia to cooperate with the investigation. The Turkish media even said that they had mastered the direct evidence that Kashoji was killed in the Saudi consulate, which aroused the attention of the international community.
Although Saudi Arabia sent a delegation to Turkey to communicate and said that Turkey could be searched for its consulate, it did not resolve the diplomatic dispute between the two countries. Considering the contradictions and confrontations between the two countries in recent years on hot issues in various regions and competing for leadership in the Middle East and the Islamic world, this diplomatic dispute has intensified the suspicions and confrontations between the two countries.
While Turkey is not willing to deteriorate its relationship with Saudi Arabia, in the face of this rare opportunity, it took the initiative to use the disappearance of Kasjiji to provoke the sensitive nerves of European and American countries and stand on the same issue. The camp has successfully narrowed the distance with European and American countries, which will help to break through the diplomatic difficulties it has faced since the US sanctions.
Messar relations will not be evil due to the case
As far as the United States is concerned, the United States is reluctant to lose big and Trump faces policy difficulties. After the disappearance of Kasuki, the American media, the public, and members of Congress increased their concerns, reacted increasingly, and put pressure on the government. Even many members of Congress demanded sanctions against Saudi Arabia.
Trump's initial reaction was relatively low-key, but in the face of the raging public opinion and the pressure of the mid-term elections, he had to raise the focus of attention and issued a speech that might impose sanctions on Saudi Arabia. However, Trump himself is not willing to deteriorate the relationship with Saudi Arabia as an important ally, and does not want to suffer the loss of real benefits. The United States is so worried about it, mainly because the Messias' allies are related to its major strategic and practical interests.
One is related to the stability of the international energy market and the oil dollar mechanism. Saudi Arabia is the world's most important energy producer and exporter and a key country in maintaining the oil dollar mechanism. Sanctions against Saudi Arabia may lead to a surge in international oil prices, weakening the world status of the US dollar, and adversely affecting US economic growth and global hegemony.
The second is the success or failure of the Middle East strategy of the United States. At present, the United States in the Middle East to contain Iran, fight terrorism, solve regional hotspot issues, etc., are inseparable from Saudi cooperation and support, and sanctions against Saudi Arabia may change the strategic pattern of the Middle East.
The third is the real economic interests of the United States and the Trump administration's administrative achievements. In his speech on possible sanctions, Trump specifically mentioned the reluctance to stop selling arms to Saudi Arabia, but prefer other forms of punishment.
After the Trump administration and Saudi Arabia reached a $110 billion arms sales contract, it could bring 450,000 jobs to the United States. This achievement has been shown by Trump several times. At the same time, the Saudi side has clearly stated that it has refused any threats, and Saudi media has even threatened to use oil weapons for the first time since the 1970s. In the face of major practical interests, the Trump administration will naturally vote for rats.
The fact that the disappearance of Kaschigi has caused damage to the relationship between the United States and Saudi Arabia is a definite fact. The US public opinion and the people's negative perceptions of Saudi Arabia have been further strengthened. The differences between the government and the Congress on the issue of sand policy have further increased. The market's concerns about the development of the Saudi state and the prospects for cooperation between the two countries are also rising, which will become the future. Unfavorable factors in the development of US-Saudi relations. However, in view of the long-term multi-level strategic cooperation relationship and major practical interests, the United States and Saudi Arabia have mutual needs, especially Saudi Arabia is more demanding in the United States, and the relationship between the two countries cannot be broken.
□Zou Zhiqiang (Associate Research Fellow, Middle East Institute, Shanghai International Studies University)