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When will the Korean Peninsula usher in a final battle? (Global Hotspot)

On October 12, South Korean President Wen Zai said in an interview with the BBC that the publication of the final declaration of the Korean Peninsula will certainly be put into practice. On the previous two days, Wen's publicly stated at the Longshan War Memorial in Seoul that the day of the peninsula's permanent peace is coming. Around this time, the Korean government has repeatedly stated that it will aim to issue a final declaration in 2018. Therefore, whether or not the final battle of the peninsula will come and when it will come will attract widespread attention from all over the world.

The situation is warming up Han Litu is dominant

In 2018, within six months, three summits of the ROK and the DPRK were held in succession. Following the icebreaking meeting in April, signing the Panmunjom Declaration and the May Lightning Meeting. After the promotion of the DPRK Summit, the September summit of the ROK and the DPRK issued a joint declaration of Pyongyang. The relationship between South Korea and the DPRK has taken a new step after the historic transition. At the same time, the thawing of the DPRK-US relationship is also underway. The goodwill signal released by the Jinte Club in June has made the situation on the peninsula more favorable.

The end of the peninsula war state seems to be just around the corner. South Korean President Wen Zaiji's visit to the DPRK on September 20th will be based on the declaration of the final war declaration in the year. Recently, he has emphasized confidence and expectation in many occasions and high-density.

In this regard, Ren Jingjing, deputy secretary-general of the Center for Regional Security Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the thawing of the DPRK-US relationship has made the two major powers, the most influential on the peninsula, China and the United States, show for the first time in the same period of time. The positive attitude of ending the state of the war on the peninsula has enabled the government to have a great opportunity to practice independent peace. At the same time, the recent changes in Sino-US relations have also created a sense of urgency for the Korean side to seize the strategic opportunity period and try to control the possible adverse effects of the big country game.

Lv Ping, an associate professor at the School of International Studies at Dalian University of Foreign Languages, believes that Wen's recent series of actions reflect the positioning of the Korean government's independent peace leader. Wen's recent intensive visit to the DPRK and the United States showed an active gesture of South Korea to coordinate the improvement of the DPRK-US relationship. Wen Zai's public disclosure of information about the prospects of the leaders of China, the DPRK and Russia is expected to be met in the near future. It is clear that there is a plan to position itself as a liaison between North Korea and the outside world, reflecting the good intentions of South Korea's attempt to highlight its role as a peninsula. .

In addition, the text is in the mood or there are considerations to appease domestic sentiment. According to data released by Gallup, the public opinion support rate in the public has fallen below 50% in early September, and it has only risen after the meeting between the Korean and Korean leaders in Pyongyang.

In this regard, Ren Jingjing said that the honeymoon period in which the government is in power in the country has ended. In the context of the short-term failure to solve the structural problems of the domestic economy, the decline in the popular support rate has also given South Korea the incentive to boost relations between South Korea and the DPRK and gain diplomatic credit.

Abandoning the nuclear is expected the situation at the time of the trial

Although Wen is optimistic about the conclusion of the final declaration, the peninsula peace process has always been linked to the denuclearization of North Korea, which is also the unanimous position of the United States and South Korea.

In April, North Korea announced that it would stop nuclear testing and launch intercontinental ballistic missiles, and decided to close the Fengxili nuclear test site, thus opening the way for the summit of the ROK, DPRK and the US summit.

In May, North Korea abandoned its nuclear and took a new step, publicly abandoning the previously closed Fengxili nuclear test site, and passed a positive signal to the international community through practical actions.

Compared to the peninsula peace process, the denuclearization process actually remains in shallow waters. Regarding North Korea's current nuclear abandonment schedule, Lu Ping believes that although the North Korean government has shown a positive nuclear abandonment position, the specific path of North Korea's nuclear warheads and land-sea missile launching tools still needs to be clarified, and North Korea's ability to develop nuclear technology remains strong.

In addition, the construction of mutual trust between the DPRK and the United States has also become an important checkpoint for the denuclearization of the peninsula and the peace process. Just as the key points involved in the DPRK-US joint communique signed on June 12, the complete denuclearization of the peninsula and the security of the North Korean system are the principle of nuclear abandonment proposed by North Korea. This reflects North Korea's anxiety and wait-and-see attitude toward US policy uncertainty.

According to the Yonhap News Agency, at the beginning of this month, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Jinghe said in a question of Congress that North Korea's submission of a nuclear declaration list is important, but the United States should first take corresponding measures to allow North Korea to promote the denuclearization process.

In this regard, Ren Jingjing pointed out that the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula is essentially a political issue, not a technical issue. The lack of mutual trust between the DPRK and the United States makes the issue highly sensitive and complex. Some countries in the world that once possessed nuclear weapons (such as Ukraine and Kazakhstan) have completed their nuclear abandonment process without obtaining the guarantee of a big country in their own security, and the country has no intention to inherit the strategic heritage of the great powers. However, the United States has already taken the issue of North Korea's nuclear abandonment as its grip on the international relations between the peninsula and Northeast Asia. The identification of military nuclear technology may become the focus of long-term disputes between the DPRK and the United States, which in turn affects the peace process on the peninsula.

Multiple interventions  Beauty may be elbow

According to the Yonhap News Agency, on the 10th, South Korean Foreign Minister Kang Jing and his question in Congress revealed that the Korean Foreign Ministry is discussing with the relevant departments whether or not to lift the 5.24 measures prohibiting economic cooperation between the ROK and the DPRK. Although it refused to say this in the subsequent defense, and the Korean Foreign Ministry clarified and communicated with the United States in the first time, it was difficult to suppress. Bloomberg reported that when US President Trump accepted a reporter's question about Seoul's plan at the White House office, he said with a strong statement that South Korea could not act without the consent of the United States.

For the recent Trump administration's frequent emphasis on its own control over the lifting of international sanctions, Lu Ping believes that it intends to warn that South Korea should not act arbitrarily to increase the bargaining chip with North Korea. As far as the current situation is concerned, the United States is likely to become a constraint to the peace process on the peninsula in the context of the continuation of the established nuclear abandonment route.

In the near term, the United States has used the sanctions to test the DPRK, in order to achieve the goal of denuclearization, which has already caused resentment against the DPRK. The North Korean Labor News published a signed commentary article criticizing the United States for seeking a dialogue with the DPRK while not relaxing the sanctions against the DPRK, saying it was a contradiction.

With the positive actions of the DPRK, the goodwill of the Republic of Korea, and the easing of the situation, the US policy change and imposed intervention is tantamount to malicious spoil.

In this regard, Ren Jingjing believes that the uncertainty of US policy stems from its domestic political operation mode. Within the U.S. government, the influence of the DPRK's contacts and the National Security Adviser Bolton on the hardliners represented by Secretary of State Pompeo is high, and Trump often uses personal preferences as a basis for decision-making. . Therefore, the US peninsula policy is likely to form a relatively stable new framework after repeated iterations. It can be said that all parties are still in the policy trial period.

For the prospect of the peace process on the peninsula, Lu Ping pointed out that it is not difficult to achieve the end of the war state on the technical level. After all, since the 1953, the two sides have established a set of effective conflict avoidance conflicts. Peace mechanism. However, the complexity of this issue is that the United States has largely constructed the peace mechanism of the peninsula as a long-term tool to induce North Korea to abandon its nuclear program, and it is more difficult for the DPRK to reach a large-scale transaction in a short period of time. At the same time, the end of the peninsula war state is also related to the vital interests of neighboring countries. How to do the work of the relevant countries is also a big test for South Korea.

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