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Australian think tank: "nuclear ceiling" under India and Pakistan still have conflict space

Reference News Network reported on March 7 that the Australian Loy Interpreter website published an article on February 27, saying that there is a nuclear ceiling between India and Pakistan that has nuclear strike capability, which both sides are unwilling to break, but There is also a conflicting space under the ceiling, and both India and Pakistan are using this space to dance.

The article stated that the Indian Air Force has hit a target in Pakistan recently, which is the latest step in the subtle shadow dance between India and Pakistan. Prior to this, on February 14, the Indian military team suffered a suicide bomb attack in Purwama, India-controlled Kashmir, and more than 40 Indian Central Reserve Police soldiers were killed in the attack. The Muhammad Army, headquartered in Pakistan, announced responsibility for the incident.

Shadow Dance Start here.

The article said that Modi, who is on the road to the election, said that the Indian people are full of blood and Pakistan will pay a heavy price for the Pulvama attack. On February 26, India dispatched the Mirage-2000 fighter plane to bomb a camp near Barakot, Pakistan.

The article asks: Many people worry that any action taken by India against Pakistan may incur a nuclear response from Pakistan, but how realistic is this danger?

The article said that nuclear war theorists say that there is a so-called stability/unstable paradox in the nuclear states that confront each other. The fear of co-destruction may form a strategic level of stability (like people in the cold war). Seen during the period). But at the same time, because both sides believe that if the conflict rises to the nuclear level is too dangerous, and the lower level of violent conflict is relatively safe, low-intensity conflicts may increase.

In other words, although there is a nuclear ceiling that neither side wants to break, there is room for conflict under this ceiling. How big this space is will depend on the parties involved in the conflict.

The article said that these recent crackdowns have enabled the Modi government to brag about a major victory for Pakistan and clearly pre-empted the Pakistani side's immediate crackdown on India. This time, the Indian government has intensified some efforts to crack down on the (non-controversial) area near Barakot in Pakistan, instead of Pakistan-controlled Kashmir.

The article said that the Pakistani side claimed that the Pakistani Air Force forced the Indian plane to flee after dropping the bomb in the uninhabited mountainous area. After meeting with the Pakistan National Security Council, Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan announced that Pakistan would choose to respond to the attack at the right time and place.

The article believes that it is still to be seen whether New Delhi and/or Islamabad feel the need for further public action, but both sides will try to control the situation.

The article concludes that the stabilizing/unstable paradox tells people that not only can there be space under the nuclear ceiling – sometimes the space is quite large – and the nuclear ceiling is still there.

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