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The "most generous" pension system on earth will end! Because this big country can't hold on

Source: Niu playing the piano

The most generous pension system on earth will end this year.

Brazil President Bossonaro recently submitted a pension reform bill to Congress. If the plan is passed, it will save 1 trillion Brazilian Real (about 1.82 trillion yuan) in 10 years. However, such a leaping reduction scheme is bound to trigger strong dissatisfaction among some members of Congress and the public.

The most generous pension on earth

Brazil has one of the world's largest social security systems, free medical care for all, free public education from primary school to university, and high benefits, pensions and pensions.

According to the current system, Brazilians only need to pay 15 years of social security, men can reach 65 years old, and women 60 years old, they can receive pensions in full. Men who have paid for 30 years can retire at the age of 53. If women pay 25 years, they can retire at the age of 48.

Compared with the private sector, the pensions of Brazilian civil servants are even more enviable. The pensions of civil servants after retirement are paid in full according to the monthly salary during their employment. According to Brazilian economist Marcel Balassiano, pensions for Brazilian civil servants are now about 33,000 yuan per month, which is more than three times the average pension of most ordinary Brazilians.

According to data from the National Geographic Institute of Brazil, the average monthly salary of white Brazilians in 2017 was R$ 2516 (about 5016 yuan), while the average monthly salary of blacks was R$ 1621 (about 3234 yuan). RMB).

For Norway, which is known for its high welfare, the legal retirement age is 67 years old. If you want to receive a full pension, you will need to pay 40 years of social insurance. It can be said that Brazilians hold the wages of developing countries but enjoy the treatment of developed countries.

With the extension of life expectancy in Brazil, according to the current system, the number of years for many people to receive pensions exceeds the number of years of social security contributions. According to the OECD report for 2017, it is estimated that in the next 40 years, the population aged 65 and over will more than double in Brazil, and the elderly population will account for about 40% in 2050.

According to the Economist magazine, Brazilian pension spending has exceeded 10% of GDP (gross domestic product).

A study shows that if the current system remains the same, the Brazilian social security system may collapse within two to three years.

It is not difficult to understand why Bossonaro will have to cut his pension when he takes office.

The road to reform is difficult

In 2018, Brazil's social security deficit expanded by 7% to R$ 195.2 million, the largest of Brazil's budget deficit. This year, pension deficits, including the private sector, the public sector and military personnel, are expected to exceed R$300 billion, equivalent to more than 4% of GDP.

According to data from the Brazilian central bank, as of November 2018, the Brazilian government's nominal deficit was R$485.041 billion, equivalent to 7.10% of GDP. The net debt of the public sector is R$ 3.644 trillion, equivalent to 53.6% of GDP. The total public sector debt is R$ 5.284 trillion, equivalent to 77.3% of GDP.

The Brazilian Ministry of Finance pointed out that according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the total debt of emerging countries at the same stage of development in Brazil is about 50% of GDP. This shows that Brazil's heavy social security burden has already sounded the alarm for the Brazilian federal government.

Bosonaro said in a speech to the nation: The establishment of a new pension system is essential to balance the current account of our country, so that this system will not collapse, and some countries in the world and some in Brazil The state is on the verge of collapse.

But the road to pension reform in Brazil must be full of thorns.

Bosnano's pension reform bill submitted to Congress includes: raising the retirement age. If a man chooses to retire before the age of 65 before the age of 65, he cannot receive a full pension. If the plan is passed, it will save 1 trillion Brazilian Real (about 1.82 trillion yuan) in 10 years.

Because the reform of the pension system involves constitutional amendments, it must be approved by the Senate and the House of Representatives. Of the 513 seats in the House of Representatives, at least three-fifths of the seats, or 308 votes, will be approved and sent to the Senate.

But the Brazilian people holding the ballots may not buy it, a large part of which is due to the poor personal debt of Brazilians, and many Brazilians cannot survive without a pension.

According to People's Daily, data released by the Brazilian Credit Protection Service and the National Stores Federation on February 15 showed that by the end of 2018, the number of debt defaulters in Brazil increased by 4.41% from 2017 to 62.6 million. This means that 40% of adults in Brazil have a poor credit status.

The data shows that the increase in debt default in 2018 is mainly for people over 30 years old. However, the largest increase in the number of under-represented people was over 65 years old, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year.

The previous Brazilian Presidents Rousseff and Temer have proposed reforming the pension system, including amending the minimum retirement age for men and women to 65 years, and increasing the payment period for receiving full pensions to 49 years. But in the end, they all ended in failure. Both Rousseff and Temer were involved in the corruption scandal and had to step down.

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