February 19, US Senator Senator Bernie Sanders announced that he will participate in the 2020 primary presidential nomination for the Democratic nomination. The 77-year-old Sanders continued to adopt the streamlined campaign logo when he participated in the Democratic primary election four years ago. It seems to remind voters not to miss Sanders as much as 2016.
In fact, although many of the polls are second only to the former Vice President Biden, Sanders may still be unable to lock in the advantage. As the tenth mainstream politician who announced his candidacy or express his intentions, Sanders is now facing more than just one opponent, Hillary, as in the last time, but a group fight.
Nearly 20 Democrats may enter the election campaign
Since the last day of 2018, Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren announced his intention to vote, the 2020 election cycle is considered to have begun to invade the US political arena.
The opening of the election cycle so early has become the norm in the context of the polarization of the party, the expansion of the influence of the Super Political Action Committee, and the intensification of money politics. At present, the 2020 Democratic primary election is likely to refresh the record of the size of a single party participating in the primary election. In light of the discussion between the US media and public opinion, more than 20 Democrats who are serving or resigning political figures may give it a go.
Although it may not be more than 20 in the end, in less than two months in 2019, there will be six congressmen, a congressman, a former congressman, a former cabinet minister, and An incumbent mayor entered the election campaign. This development trend will surpass the historical grand occasion of the 16th Republican primaries in 2016.
In a non-open election, that is, in the election where the president is seated by the ruling party, the super-primary primaries compete at least one problem: more Democrats believe that less than 40% of the stability is stable. Trump is facing greater pressure in re-election.
The accuracy of this judgment has yet to be confirmed, but the effect of the final selection of nearly 20 people is likely to be the appearance of a presidential nominee who is completely incompatible with the elite will of the party.
Since the implementation of the current primary election system in 1972, the top three elections for the primary elections were the Republican primary election of 17 people in 2016, the Democratic primary election of 16 people in 1976, and the early Democratic Party of 15 people in 1972. The elections have produced candidates who are inconsistent with the will of the party, namely Trump, Carter and McCormick.
If this law is replicated in the 2020 Democratic Party elections, Sanders, even a non-core elite who is farther away from Sanders' mainstream mainstream values, will have a greater chance of winning.
And in the end, the probability of the three nominees who did not meet the party's intentions entered the White House was two-thirds (Trump and Carter were able to enter the White House). This is certainly not good news for Trump.
Women's candidates get together and break the glass ceiling
In addition to the overall scale of the record, the Democratic primary squad also rarely gathered five female mainstream politicians, and the most recent record was only the 1972 Democratic primary, which accommodated two female candidates.
The over-existence of female candidates is not only a slap in the face of Clinton's failure to break the glass ceiling in 2016, but also shows that in the past two years, Trump has been in immigration, medical care, education, and gender equality. Women are concerned about the controversy and rare people in the policy field.
In the pink wave that emerged from the mid-term elections of 2018, the possibility of the absence of women in the group of vice presidents and presidents provided by the Democratic Party on the 2020 election day is continuing to decline.
While continuing to attract female votes through identity politics, female candidates must also face an unavoidable challenge: Hillary's broken glass ceiling is not enough to maximize voter support, and female politicians need to take A specific policy plan that orders voters to be convinced.
It is undeniable that, based on the fact that six incumbent senators have officially challenged Trump, in the future, Trump's congressional legislative process to promote internal and external policies will suddenly evolve into a pre-election campaign. Hot or play. At that time, the battle of the house that is in full swing will inevitably intensify.
Although the 2020 sprint of the Democratic camp has already started, it is still a year away from the beginning of the primary election. Too many things are difficult to predict. Today, the Democratic polls seen by the outside world are not so much the polls that the presidential nominees are most likely to be selected, but rather the polls of the public's cognition. Their reference is not so strong.
More difficult to predict is the prospect of Trump's re-election. The key factor in the so-called campaign to see opponents is to see who the winners of the Democratic Party ultimately end up. So, everything is just beginning.
刁刁明(Researcher, Institute of National Development and Strategy, Renmin University of China, Associate Professor, School of International Studies)