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Japan's Ministry of Labour and Welfare does not lack funds, and "pit" Abe for "habitual" data fraud. |Beijing Brewery

The data is not authoritative, how can the decision be correct? The fraudulent statistics of the province of Laos may indeed make Abenomics nude swimming.

文| 徐立凡

The continually fermenting Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare statistics fraud incident has recently made Abe more and more square.

The cause of the incident was that at the end of last year, Japanese media reported that the statistics of the province of thick labor were suspected of fraud. The report triggered a comprehensive survey of relevant statistics in the province of thick labor, and found that of the 56 basic statistical items, 22 had delayed release, missed investigation and statistical misconduct, and the error rate was as high as 40%.

Among them, the monthly labor situation requires the investigation of large enterprises with more than 500 employees in the country, but since 2004, the province has only investigated one third of the 1,400 companies in Tokyo.

Insufficient employment data for large enterprises directly leads to distortions in salary levels, and the benefits of unemployed people and welfare subsidies for low-income groups are also reduced.

It is estimated that more than 20 million people in Japan are affected by statistical data fraud, amounting to about 56 billion yen ($512 million).

There is not much money to watch, but Abe's apology for his family's misfortunes this year has no effect, and Abe's economics, which he is proud of, is also suspected to be a castle in the air.

The Japanese media has recently added another piece of firewood, pointing to the falsification of statistics to launch an economic coup.

It's true that driving is not standardized, and my loved ones have two tears.

First, thick work, save money, and have the most inertia

The accusations of the Japanese media economic coup, although somewhat exaggerated, can not be said to be untargeted.

Deferred release, missed inspections, subjective factors certainly account for a considerable proportion. As for the statistical methods that violate the provisions of the statistical law, there is nowhere to explain - the Japanese Ministry of Labour has a set of statistical methods that are destined to be untrue, and is implemented in the operation manual.

And among the many administrative agencies in Japan, the province of thick labor received the most financial allocations. Last year, the budget of the Japanese executive authorities was more than 97 trillion yen, and the province of thick labor alone accounted for more than 31 trillion yuan, which is more than 6 trillion yen more than the financial province that manages money. So much money is needed to support the 30,000 provinces in addition to office expenses. More employees.

So, is there a lack of investigation funding? nonexistent.

There is no shortage of funds but it is not good to work. It is inevitable that the Japanese opposition party suspects that the fraud is intended to smear Abe's political achievements and the result is ruined.

Looking at the past survey records of the province of thick labor, you will find that their data fraud is not the first time, there is already inertia.

A few years ago, the Ministry of Health and Welfare survey estimated that the average Japanese employee worked 9 hours and 37 minutes a day; the flexible work staff was 9 hours and 16 minutes, so it was concluded that the flexible work was less than the fixed work time.

In February last year, Abe cited the conclusions of the province of Heavy Labor in the defense of the Labor and Employment Act in Congress and was questioned. As a result, more than 900 of the more than 10,000 companies surveyed by the province of Laos had problems.

There are statistics based on the time of the employee's workday, and some are based on the data of the work week, which is a mess. After the disclosure of the matter, Abe had to announce that the data cited in the parliamentary defense was not counted.

In terms of the statistical level of the province, the ability to add points to Abe's performance is questionable. But whether it is intentional fraud or lazy politics, Abe is now carrying a pot for them.

Second, Abe has the same pot twice in 12 years

Abe is not unfamiliar with the pot that has to be carried on this mouth.

Twelve years ago, it was because of the troubles caused by the thick labor, which became one of the fuses that Abe stepped down.

In 2007, as the youngest prime minister in Japan after the war, Abe was screaming at the time when life had reached its peak. In the summer, Japan suddenly exposed more than 50 million scandals of national annuity records.

The reason is that the Social Insurance Agency of the province of Laos has lost its scorpion. They intend to change the paper national annuity record between 1979 and 1989 to an electronic document.

This is a chore: In the past, every Japanese national has a number of annuity accounts according to different annuity payment categories. Every time you transfer work, marriage, etc., the annuity account changes. In order to avoid confusion, Japan introduced the basic annuity account system and consolidated the individual annuity accounts into one basic account.

In the process of changing the old national annuity account into an electronic file, the province of the province has experienced a batch of input errors. The computer has not pronounced the pronunciation of the Chinese characters in the Japanese nationality. The electronic file is like a virus.

In this case, in the past, the individual's multiple annuity account cannot be changed to the combined basic account in the computer, and it has to be used as the information to be checked. Checked and found that as many as 50 million annuity materials were lost.

Under panic, many people who have received annuities have gone to the offices of social security offices around the country to check their information. Abe's public opinion support rate has therefore declined rapidly. By September of that year, the disheartened Abe suddenly resigned and ended his first term as prime minister.

The statistical fraud caused by the Ministry of Health and Welfare was not as big as 12 years ago, but it is of the same nature. Of the 20 million affected people, 10 million still do not know where they are. The government wants to reissue the subsistence allowance to stop bleeding and does not know where to find someone.

Three, Abe is not afraid to force the palace, but Abenomics will be nude swimming

For the sham fraud in the province of thick labor, the Japanese opposition party has seized the fighter plane with no politeness.

The Democratic Party leader believes that this has led to a shaken of the country's foundation and calls for the removal of the Minister of the Ministry of Labour.

The opposition parties also burned the war to raise the consumption tax rate and the status of the US military in the Japan-US security treaty. They have forced the court to re-enact the posture of 12 years ago.

The Abe government's public opinion support rate has once dropped to a level lower than in 2007.

But today's Abe is not Wu Amon, and basically does not take the pressure of the opposition party seriously.

Although due to fraud, the province of Houlu has opened dozens of officials, but Abe insists on keeping the official position of the master. - The basic craftsman is the main point of the macro pool in the seven major factions, and the power of the macro pool in the various factions of the House can be ranked in the top three.

Apologize to apologize, make up for it, but not to chaos the support of the political arena. Abe has a lot of experience on how to deal with chaos, so I am not afraid of the scene of the forced palace 12 years ago.

But Abenomics can only swim naked in the harsh scrutiny of the outside world.

The so-called three arrows of Abenomics are loose monetary policy, expansion of fiscal expenditures, and structural economic reforms. Since its implementation in 2012, it seems to have added a lot of vitality to the Japanese market, but it has also left the issue of excessive fiscal deficits.

More importantly, the three arrows can't solve the problem, but it will aggravate the social security burden caused by the aging, and the aging is the ultimate problem of the Japanese economy.

It can be expected that Abe's economic decisions will be much more questioned in the future than before. The data is not authoritative, how can the decision be correct? There is no better weapon than this.

This pot from the province of thick labor, Abe probably has to back to the end of the second term.

□Xu Lifan (column writer)

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