In recent days, the market's concerns about US sanctions against Venezuelan oil companies (PDVSA) have gradually increased. Since January 28, the international oil price has risen for four days.
Venezuela is one of the world's largest producers of heavy crude oil. The United States has been the largest customer in Venezuela, with about half of its crude oil exports to the United States. Sun Yanfeng, deputy director of the Latin American Institute of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, said in an interview with the First Financial News that if the United States no longer imports Venezuela crude oil, the balance of international heavy oil supply and demand will undergo great changes.
Killing 10,000 self-injury 8,000
In 2018, Venezuela exported an average of 514,000 barrels per day of crude oil to the United States. Sun Yanfeng believes that Venezuela's oil revenue will show a big contraction in a short period of time, which will have a huge impact on the financial revenue of the Commission. What is more important is that Venezuela exports heavy oil, and heavy oil can not find other substitute users in a short time. However, the US practice in Sun Yanfeng seems to kill 10,000 self-injury, because many refineries in the southern United States are designed according to the refinement of Venezuelan heavy oil. Once the Venezuela crude oil cannot be imported, these refineries will face the squatting. Dilemma. At the same time, the rise in oil prices is not in the interest of the United States.
At the same time, Xu Shicheng, a researcher and honorary faculty member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said in an interview with the First Financial News that Venezuela's economic sector is relatively simple, and that daily necessities, as well as food, are mainly imported through foreign exchange earned by oil exports. The main source of current foreign exchange is crude oil exported to the United States.
Maduro is supported by regional allies
Venezuela President Maduro proposed on the 2nd that the Constitutional Assembly immediately studied the holding of parliamentary elections in advance to restore the legitimacy of the national legislature. In his speech, Maduro stressed that it is necessary to find a way to resolve the domestic political crisis within the constitutional framework through political means. He said that the parliamentary elections will be held this year and the Constitutional Convention will solicit opinions from the public.
For the opposition party to ask the United States to intervene in the committee, Maduro asked for an immediate cessation of this behavior. He stressed that Venezuela has only one president and he will continue to govern. He also expressed support and gratitude to Mexico, Uruguay and Bolivia for their dialogue with the two parties.
Uruguay and Mexico will hold a conference on Venezuelan in the Ukrainian capital of Montevideo on the 7th. More than 10 countries are interested in attending the conference. Both Mexico and Uruguay currently recognize the legitimacy of Venezuelan President Maduro. Mexico and Uruguay issued a joint statement on the evening of the 23rd, hoping that the Venezuelan domestic ruling and opposition parties can establish a comprehensive and credible dialogue process to guarantee state and citizenship.
Sun Yanfeng told the First Financial Reporter that the intention of the meeting was: First, to ease the crisis in Venezuela, they can become intermediaries between Maduro and the opposition. Second, I want to help the Maduro government solve the problem. The two sides are now in a tit for tat, and you are living and living. Maduro is still relatively defensive. He also needs international allies to ease his pressure. Countries like Uruguay and Mexico play such a role and the role is more appropriate. They mediate, at least to help Maduro relieve some pressure.
Xu Shicheng told the First Financial Reporter that from the current point of view, in the short term, the possibility of direct military intervention by the United States against the Commission is not very high, or it is still stuck in financial means, in an attempt to cut off the foreign exchange source of the Maduro government. In the financial and financial neck of the Camaduro government, in order to combat the Maduro government.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Yan Shuang said at a regular press conference on February 1 that China has maintained close communication with the parties on different occasions in Venezuela and is willing to work with the parties to persuade and promote talks. Work together to create favorable conditions for the proper resolution of the Venezuelan issue.